He is known for having proposed 'The Black Swan Theory.' 3) Added information showing the story behind the effectiveness of Average National IQ is, statistically, a fraud. A goat will be ideal then. ), Background : “IQ” is a stale test meant to measure mental capacity but in fact mostly measures extreme unintelligence (learning difficulties), as well as, to a lesser extent (with a lot of noise), a form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects — how good someone is at taking some type of exams designed by unsophisticated nerds. Escaping a … So far ~ 50% of the research does not replicate, and papers that do have weaker effect. Sort by citations Sort by year Sort by title. If you think you will change the behavior of religious people by modifying the theologies, you are committing the standard Weberian fallacy. How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach. The concept is poorly thought out mathematically by the field (commits a severe flaw in correlation under fat tails and asymmetries; fails to properly deal with dimensionality; treats the mind as an instrument not a complex system), and seems to be promoted by. Among other flaws (he does not seem to know how to extract heredity, but that’s another problem). by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nassim Nicholas Taleb spent twenty-one years as a risk taker before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (mostly) practical problems with probability. Read writing from Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Medium. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. A Maserati will perform best on a track and beat a goat there. The Flynn effect should warn us not just that IQ is somewhat environment dependent, but that it is at least partly circular. The paper with @nntaleb and @yaneerbaryam is finally online.Once completely processed, it will be open access.https://t.co/dVNC9IHq8x. Il est actuellement professeur d'ingénierie du risque à l'Institut polytechnique de l'université de New York1,2,3. But what if you need to cross the Corsican garigue? If you want to detect how someone fares at a task, say loan sharking, tennis playing, or random matrix theory, make him/her do that task; we don’t need theoretical exams for a real world function by probability-challenged psychologists. by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan By Nassim Nicholas Taleb, et al. Add to basket. Here, expert and undiscovered voices alike dive into the heart of any topic and bring new ideas to the surface. ). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: “IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, with correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random and training is another test). No. A (Sorta) Victory for Cannabis Research in the US, Why SpaceX Wants a Tiny Texas Neighborhood So Badly. Biography Nassim Taleb's parents were Nagib Taleb, an oncologist and haematologist, and Minerva Ghosn, a anthropology researcher.Nagib and Minerva were Greek Orthodox Lebanese of the Greek Orthodox Church of Antioch but held French citizenship. 14 likes. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) February 12, 2021 He also asserted that the culture around Bitcoin has been taken over by “Covid denying sociopaths [with] the sophistication of amoebas.” It’s an apparent 180 for Taleb, who’s advocated for crypto in the past. 1) that they patently don’t understand. Psychologists do not realize that the effect of IQ (if any, ignoring circularity) is smaller than the difference between IQ tests for the same individual (correlation is 80% between test and retest, meaning you being you explains less than 64% of your test results. Another problem: when they say “black people are x standard deviations away”, they don’t know what they are talking about. See graph. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (né en 1960 à Amioun au Liban) est un écrivain, statisticien et essayiste spécialisé en épistémologie des probabilités1 et un praticien en mathématiques financières1 libano-franco-américain. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nassim Nicholas Taleb divides the world and all that's in it (people, things, institutions, ways of life) into three categories: the fragile, the robust and the antifragile. I have here no psychological references in this piece (except via negativa, taking their “best”), not that I didn’t read these crap papers: simply, the field is bust. Designed for learning disabilities, and given that it is not too needed there (see argument further down), it ends up selecting for exam-takers, paper shufflers, obedient IYIs (intellectuals yet idiots), ill adapted for “real life”. Plomin who studies heredity doesn’t seem aware of the intransitivity of correlation. Further it is leading to racist imbeciles who think that if a country has an IQ of 82 (assuming it is true not the result of lack of such training), it means politically that all the people there have an IQ of 82, hence let’s ban them from immigrating. 6) To do well in life you need depth and ability to select your own problems and to think independently. A measure that works in the left tail not the right tail (IQ decorrelates as it goes higher) is problematic. It is the interpretation of these correlations that is full of BS. Mar 12, 2017. While countries have improved their capacity since the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak, Taleb said there has been a failure to develop quick, efficient testing at a scale that can cut off chains of transmission early. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is one of the most pragmatic minds out there and I was honored to interview him. 2) Turns out IQ beats random selection in the best of applications by less than 6%, typically <2%, as the computation of correlations have a flaw and psychologists do not seem to know the informational value of correlation in terms of “how much do I gain information about B knowing A” and propagation of error (intra-test variance for a single individual). Also, I have never seen anyone fail to do so by the second one. How do you learn a language? Follow. Link to the Paper: Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach, Incerto (Deluxe Edition): Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, Life Expectancy can be so grossly misunderstood by “experts”, Some (Mis)Understanding of Life Expectancy, With Some Good News, Paper: Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetics, [YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the Danish Study on Face Masks, [Medium] Foreword for Cut the Knot: Probability Riddles by Alexander Bogomolny, Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Global coronavirus response a case study of government incompetence and denial, [Medium] Religion, Violence, Tolerance & Progress: Nothing to do with Theology, medium.com/incerto/religion-violence-tolerance-progress-nothing-to-do-with-theology, [YouTube] enlightED 2020: Conversation between Nassim Taleb and Teresa Martín-Retortillo, Paper: On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, [YouTube] Nassim’s interview with George Buhnici, How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach, Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach, Nassim Taleb’s Book Reviews/Recommendations, Hierarchy of distributions in term of fat-tailedness. Every day, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and thousands of other voices read, write, and share important stories on Medium. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Some psychologist wrote back to me: “IQ selects for pattern recognition, essential for functioning in modern society”. Additional Variance: Let us return to the point of the correlation test-retest. 2) Real life never never offers crisp questions with crisp answers (most questions don’t have answers; perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”.) But the “intelligence” in IQ is determined by academic psychologists (no geniuses) like the “paper trading” we mentioned above, via statistical constructs s.a. correlation that I show here (see Fig. Verified email at nyu.edu - Homepage. Explore, If you have a story to tell, knowledge to share, or a perspective to offer — welcome home. Probability and statistics confuse fools. Source: Paul Bogossian]. It’s easy and free to post your thinking on any topic. Be careful when you discuss populations. S ince the midterm elections, a feud has been raging on Twitter between Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, hedge-fund-manager-turned-mathematical-philosopher and author of The Black Swan. As I keep saying one can do logic without empiricism, but one must never do empiricism without logic.Something as elementary as Life Expectancy can be so grossly misunderstood by MD "experts" in… the Lancet in… 2018.https://t.co/ZJoZO3K8ia, Link to article – Some (Mis)Understanding of Life Expectancy, With Some Good News, The paper (Maronites/Armenia) applied our entropy metrics in place of correlation.Entropy scales genetic distances much more effectively/https://t.co/Ge143PmNML https://t.co/wqf3M6LtuU pic.twitter.com/zqeadKTuLh, Link to Paper – academia.edu/41442347/Informational…, Nassim and Yaneer discuss the Danish study on Face Masks published by Bundgaard et al., “Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers.”, HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN THE PRESENCE OF FALSE POSITIVES: THE FLAWS IN THE DANISH MASK STUDY. Nassim Nicholas Taleb ist ein Essayist und Forscher in den Bereichen Statistik, Zufall und Epistemologie und ehemaliger Finanzmathematiker. Learn more, Follow the writers, publications, and topics that matter to you, and you’ll see them on your homepage and in your inbox. It also has the least economic cost, he said. The same people hold that IQ is heritable, that it determines success, that Asians have higher IQs than Caucasians, degrade Africans, then don’t realize that China for about a Century had one order of magnitude lower GDP than the West. “IQ” is good for @davidgraeber’s “BS jobs”. What goes in people’s head as a reaction to an image on a screen doesn’t exist (except via negativa). US$36.49 US$40.03. These are severe, severe mathematical flaws (a billion papers in psychometrics wouldn’t count if you have such a flaw). Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.. Metrification: If someone came up w/a numerical“Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. In doing so, we also respond to the points raised by Ioannidis et al. Functionary Quotient: If you renamed IQ , from “Intelligent Quotient” to FQ “Functionary Quotient” or SQ “Salaryperson Quotient”, then some of the stuff will be true. Follow. The book covers subjects … (2020). Add to basket. It is via negativa not via positiva. Risk Tail Risk Quantitative Finance Financial Engineering Applied Probability. 02 Mar 2018. I personally have never seen anyone learn to speak a language properly by the first route. Posted on June 15, 2020 by Yves Smith. Published: 2 Jun 2010 . US$24.66 US$26.56. Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The black swan 363. merely throwing together random materials only to be shocked that the resul t could, for instance, be … Articles Cited by Co-authors. We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management. You can’t do statistics without probability. NYU Tandon School of Engineering, & Former Trader. Explore {{searchView.params.phrase}} by color family {{familyColorButtonText(colorFamily.name)}} Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Lebanese, writer, essayist, portrait, novelist, Colico, Italy, 5th September 2008. $3.99 shipping. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a writer, known for Veritasium (2010), Ce soir (ou jamais!) the quiz I gave and using Log vs. They do not seem to grasp what noise/signal really means in practice. Video: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on knowledge, power and why a cab driver knows as much as a political scientist about what is going to happen tomorrow. Fat Tails If IQ is Gaussian by construction (well, almost) and if real world performance were, net, fat tailed (it is), then either the covariance between IQ and performance doesn’t exist or it is uninformational.